FZHW50 PHFO 081845
SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST SUN NOV 8 2009
 
HIZ005>011-090100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST SUN NOV 8 2009

SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET TODAY AND 4 TO 6 
FEET MONDAY.

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND 1 TO 3 
FEET MONDAY.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.

SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY NOV 14:
THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY. A 
SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN LATE 
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY 
LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE CURRENT SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL 
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SMALL AND BRIEF ONE EXPECTED 
THURSDAY. 

SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM 
REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.

&&

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI NOV 6 2009

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 
4 DAYS. 

FORECAST  SWL  DMNT DMNT  H    H     HGT          WIND   WIND   SPD
DATE      HGT  DIR  PD    1/3  1/10  TEND   PROB  SPD    DIR    TEND

1 PM        4  NNW   11     6     8  DOWN         13-19   ENE   SAME
11/06       7  ENE    7     2     4  DOWN
            3  SSW   14     5     7  SAME

SAT         5  NNW   15     8    10  SAME   HIGH  13-19   E     SAME
11/07       7  ENE    7     2     4  SAME   MED 
            3  SSW   14     5     7  SAME   MED 

SUN         4  N     13     6     8  DOWN   MED   13-19   E     SAME
11/08       7  ENE    7     2     4  SAME   MED 
            2  SSW   13     2     4  DOWN   MED 

MON         4  N     11     6     8  SAME   LOW   13-19   ENE   SAME
11/09       7  ENE    7     2     4  SAME   MED 
            2  SSW   12     2     4  SAME   LOW 

TUE         3  NNE   10     4     6  DOWN   LOW   13-19   ENE   SAME
11/10       7  ENE    7     2     4  SAME   LOW 
            2  SSW   15     2     4  UP     LOW 

WED         4  N     13     6     8  UP     LOW   13-19   ENE   SAME
11/11       7  ENE    7     2     4  SAME   LOW 
            2  SSW   14     2     4  SAME   LOW 

LEGEND:
SWL HGT    OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
           IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR   DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
           POINTS
DMNT PD    DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10      AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
           ZONE
HGT TEND   HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB       PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD   OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
           20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR   WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND   WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME 
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
NEAR HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELL TO LAST INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY 
SWELL FOR THE WEEKEND.

DETAILED...
MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY 
QUASI-HIGH BREAKERS FROM 185-200 DEGREES. SIMILAR HEIGHTS EXPECTED 
ON SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE AUSTRAL SPRING PATTERN HAS SET UP NEAR NEW ZEALAND MAKING 
LOCAL SURF ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS NEAR NIL FROM SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE SOURCES IN NOVEMBER. THE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LONG 
RANGE.

A WEEK AGO THIS PAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SEVERE GALES SE OF 
NEW ZEALAND GENERATED LONG PERIOD SWELL AIMED AT HAWAII IN THE 
190-200 DEGREE BAND. THIS ENERGY ARRIVED LOCALLY ON THIS PAST 
WEDNESDAY AND ROSE ON THURSDAY.

LAST FRIDAY EAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND...A NEW LOW 
PRESSURE FORMED WITH GALES IN THE 185-200 DEGREE BAND REACHING TO 
WITHIN 3000 NM OF HAWAII. SWELL FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WERE GIVEN AN 
EXTRA PUSH FROM THE SECOND SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS NEAR HIGH 
CONDITIONS LOCALLY ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE...THE 
SWELL TRAINS BECOME DISPERSED...OR SPREAD IN GROUPS OF SIMILAR WAVE 
PERIODS OVER WIDE AREAS. THIS SHOULD MEAN SLOW CHANGES TO THE LOCAL 
PATTERN. BUOY 51002 SHOWS ENERGY IN THE 13-16 SECOND BAND STAYING 
FAIRLY STEADY ON FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LIKELY...LOCAL SURF WILL HOLD 
THE SAME ON SATURDAY...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND LATE SATURDAY INTO 
SUNDAY FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. LINGERING SMALL SURF IS POSSIBLE ON 
MONDAY.

ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE PASSED SE OF NEW ZEALAND EARLY THIS 
WEEK...THOUGH AIMING MORE AT TARGETS EAST OF HAWAII. ANGULAR 
SPREADING SHOULD BRING IN AT LEAST SMALL BREAKERS NEXT TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY FROM 180-200 DEGREES.

MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS SUB-MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 340-020 
DEGREES WITH 9-12 SECOND PERIODS. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR 
GALES NORTH OF THE STATE MID WEEK. THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO LOWER 
OVERNIGHT AS A NEW EPISODE ARRIVES.

THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM HAS HAD A BLOCKING PATTERN...OR 
RIDGE...NEAR THE DATELINE AND TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS 
GIVING DOMINANT SWELL FROM NNW TO NNE. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT-WAVE IN THE JET STREAM ROUNDED THE RIDGE AND AMPLIFIED ON 
TUESDAY AS IT MOVED EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF HAWAII...160W. AT THE 
SURFACE...SEVERE GALES IN AN AREA OVER 1500 NM SET UP JUST EAST OF 
THE DATELINE ON TUESDAY...AIMED NEAR TO JUST EAST OF HAWAII. BY 
WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENED AND BROADENED...YET LEFT THE 
HAWAII SWELL WINDOW.

LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 15-17 SECONDS IS DUE LOCALLY OVERNIGHT...WITH 
SURF IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY FROM 345-360 DEGREES. 
HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH ADDED ENERGY 
FROM 000-030 DUE TO ANGULAR SPREADING FROM THE MASSIVE GULF OF 
ALASKA SOURCE...WITH AT LEAST SMALL BREAKERS.

MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 
160W ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER FOR THE FETCH AIMED AT OR JUST EAST OF 
HAWAII...LEANING TOWARD MARGINAL GALES IN AN AREA 1500 NM OUT ON 
SUNDAY. THIS COULD GIVE A NEAR MODERATE EPISODE FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 
350-010 DEGREES.

MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS UNDER 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. SEE THE LATEST NWS STATE WEATHER FORECAST 
DISCUSSION FOR EXPLANATIONS AND CAVEATS TO THE FRIDAY FIVE-DAY WIND 
FORECAST. SIMILAR SURF IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INTO THE LONG RANGE...WINDSWELL TO AT LEAST MODERATE LEVELS FROM 
30-90 DEGREES MID NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND. NO SUGGESTIONS OF 
SURF FROM WNW TO NW LATER NEXT WEEK. DOMINANT DIRECTION FROM NNW TO 
NNE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIX IN MODELS GIVES BEST 
WIND ESTIMATE TO MID NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES.

IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SETTING UP EAST 
OF NEW ZEALAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MODELLED TO PUSH 
THROUGH...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE TO E OF NEW 
ZEALAND. THIS SHOULD GIVE WELL ABOVE NOVEMBER SOUTH SHORE AVERAGES 
FOR THE WEEK STARTING NOVEMBER 15 OUT ABOUT A WEEK.

LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...NOVEMBER 9.

THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/  HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
 
$$