FZHW50 PHFO 100455
SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST THU JUL 9 2009
 
HIZ005>011-101900-
OAHU-
700 PM HST THU JUL 9 2009

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. 

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL FLAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE FLAT TO 1 FOOT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY JUL 15:
A SMALL MIX OF BACKGROUND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AND TRADE 
WIND SWELL WRAP WILL CONTINUE AROUND WAIST HIGH FOR SOUTH FACING 
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST FACING SHORES 
WILL SEE WAIST TO CHEST HIGH SLOPPY WIND SWELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AS TRADE WINDS PERSIST. SURF WILL BE MOSTLY FLAT ELSEWHERE. 
INCREASING SOUTH SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT 
WITH MANY AREAS SEEING SHOULDER TO HEAD HIGH SURF WEDNESDAY.

SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.

&&

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED JUL 8 2009

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 
4 DAYS. 

FORECAST  SWL  DMNT DMNT  H    H     HGT          WIND   WIND   SPD
DATE      HGT  DIR  PD    1/3  1/10  TEND   PROB  SPD    DIR    TEND

1 PM        6  E      7     2     4  SAME         13-19   E     SAME
07/08       2  S     13     2     4  SAME

THU         2  NNW   10     2     4  UP     LOW   13-19   E     SAME
07/09       7  E      7     2     4  SAME   LOW 
            2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 

FRI         2  NNW    9     2     4  DOWN   LOW   13-19   E     SAME
07/10       7  E      7     2     4  SAME   LOW 
            2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 

SAT         6  E      7     2     4  SAME   LOW   11-16   E     DOWN
07/11       2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 

SUN         5  E      7     2     4  SAME   LOW   11-16   E     SAME
07/12       2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 

MON         5  E      7     2     4  SAME   LOW   11-16   E     SAME
07/13       2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 

LEGEND:
SWL HGT    OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
           IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR   DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
           POINTS
DMNT PD    DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10      AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
           ZONE
HGT TEND   HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB       PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD   OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
           20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR   WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND   WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME 
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
MINIMAL SUMMER SURF.

DETAILED...
MID WEDNESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS MOSTLY FLAT SURF. A TINY 
EPISODE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEST OF THE DATELINE ARE MAKING FOR TINY 
TO SMALL SURF POTENTIAL LOCALLY THIS PERIOD AND NEXT WEEK.

A SYSTEM WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG TO 
NEAR GALE WINDS IN THE 335-345 DEGREE BAND. THE SYSTEM TRACKED AWAY 
FROM HAWAII...AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR LOCAL SURF. A TINY EPISODE IS 
EXPECTED TO RISE ON THURSDAY AND DROP ON FRIDAY.

MID WEDNESDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS SMALL...CHOPPY SURF UNDER 
MODERATE TO LOW-END FRESH TRADES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
INTO FRIDAY DROPPING TO MOSTLY MODERATE FLOW WITH SMALL SURF FOR THE 
WEEKEND.

MID WEDNESDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS SMALL SURF. THIS IS THE 
TYPICAL SUMMER BACKGROUND PATTERN. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT OF 140-220 DEGREES.

INTO THE LONG RANGE...A MORE ACTIVE SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING S TO E OF 
NEW ZEALAND THIS WEEK...AS THE JET STREAM SETS UP ANOTHER TROUGH IN 
THIS REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TASMAN SEA. THIS SHOULD 
GIVE A RETURN TO MODERATE OR HIGHER...LONG PERIOD SWELL NEXT WEEK 
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE FIRST IS DUE LATE TUESDAY FROM 170-190 
DEGREES...PEAKING LATE WEDNESDAY AND DROPPING INTO THURSDAY...WHEN A 
NEW EPISODE FROM 180-200 DEGREES IS DUE. MODELS SUGGEST BACK TO 
BACK...MOSTLY MODERATE EPISODES TO FOLLOW FROM MOSTLY 180-200 
DEGREES. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...MORE WEAK SYSTEMS WEST OF THE 
DATELINE COULD MAKE FOR SHORT-LIVED SMALL OR LESS EPISODES LOCALLY. 
ONE SUCH NW TO NNW EVENT IS MODELLED FOR ROUGHLY NEXT WEDNESDAY. 
MODERATE TRADES WITH PEAK DAYS INTO THE LOW-END FRESH RANGE WITH 
SMALL WINDSWELL. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO TWEAKS.

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY...JULY 10.

THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/  HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP

$$