HONOLULU (KITV) - September 13th, 2018

5:00 a.m.

Olivia is moving rapidly toward the west-southwest far from Hawaii. Flooding and rainfall continues across the islands.

The storm is 250 miles southwest of Lihue, and 305 miles west-southwest of Honolulu.

O'ahu is under a Flash Flood Warning until 12:10 p.m.

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11:00 p.m.

Olivia has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression with winds of 35 mph.  Motion is WSW 18 mph.  160 miles SSW of Lihue, HI. Flood Watch in effect.

9:45 p.m.

The National Weather Service issued a flood warning for the island of Oahu until 12:30 a.m. 

5:37 p.m.

The Nu'u area at Pi'ilani Highway Mile Marker 30  is passable with 4 wheel drive only at this time.

5 p.m.

Tropical storm warning is discontinued for the island of Oahu and Maui County as Olivia moves away from the islands. High surf warning also cancelled for Maui County. 

3:46 p.m.

The Flood Advisory for O'ahu has been extended until 6:15 p.m. Wednesday.

2 p.m.
Olivia passes South of Oahu and weakens. The storm moves west at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Oahu an Maui County.

11 a.m.
Olivia makes brief landfall over Northwest Maui and then over Lanai as it moves westward.
About 40 miles W of Kahului Hawaii or 60 miles ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.
Maximum sustained winds 45 mph and moving 15 mph.


9:45 a.m.
The latest update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said, "The center of Tropical Storm Olivia made landfall at about 9:10AM. Near Kahakuloa on the windward coast of the West Maui Mountains. This is about 10 miles northwest of Kahului, Maui."

The storm continues to move west -at 14 mph- with maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. 

8 a.m.
Tropical Storm Olivia's intensity has remained the same just 25 miles from Kahului, Maui. The storm continues to move west at 10 mph and tropical-storm-force winds extend 90 miles from the center. No changes to watches or warnings with this update.

5 a.m.

Tropical Storm Olivia's intensity has remained the same, but picked up a bit in forward speed-now moving at 12 mph.

The latest track has Olivia moving more toward the northeast of Maui, highlighting Maui Island, and Maui County within the cone of uncertainty. 

Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect for O'ahu, Maui County, including Moloka'i and Lana'i and Kahoolawe.

Flash Flood Watch statewide.

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September 12, 2018 
2 a.m. 

Olivia slowly moves closer to Maui.

As of 2:00 a.m. the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Olivia is 95 miles E of Kahului, Maui or 195 miles E of Honolulu, Oahu. Moving WSW at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds at 45 mph.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: Oahu, Maui County and Hawaii County. On the forecast track, Olivia will move very close to Maui this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Maui county and Big Island today, and beginning over Oahu later this morning. Showers will continue to increase, up to three inches of rain has already fallen over parts of Maui. 

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11 p.m.

Olivia continues to weaken as it approaches and possibly passes through the Alenuihaha Channel. 

Strongest winds likely will be felt in Maui and Northern Big Island at 30-45 mph with higher gusts.  

Winds are currently at 45 mph and the motion is West Southwest at 8 mph.

Right now Tropical Storm Olivia is 125 miles East of Kahului

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8 p.m.

Olivia's forward speed has slowed again, and it is moving toward the Southwest near 8 mph. 

A general West-Southwest motion and a gradual increase in forward speed is expected overnight as the center of Olivia approaches Maui and the Big Island.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.

Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Olivia is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves over the main Hawaiian Islands.

5 p.m.

Tropical Storm Olivia has shifted South, new pictures attached to this story.

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2 p.m.

Winds have been increasing over Maui County and the Big Island as Tropical Storm Olivia approaches.

The storm is about 135 miles northeast of Hilo, and about 260 miles east of Honolulu, with maximum sustained winds at 55 mph.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the following counties:

  • Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
  • Oahu
  • Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kaloohawe
  • Hawaii county

Olivia is moving toward the west-southwest at 21 mph. According to the latest forecast track, the storm will be moving across the main Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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11 a.m.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Kauai Windward, and Niihau.

The storm has been weakening, but is moving faster with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph.

Olivia is moving at 17 mph west, and is currently 275 miles east of Kahului.

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8 a.m.

Olivia's outermost shower bands are gradually spreading across the main Hawaiian Islands.

The storm is 240 miles from Maui, and 380 from Honolulu. 

Oahu, Maui and Hawaii Counties still under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Tropical Storm Watch is still in effect for Kauai County.

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11 p.m.

Wind speeds have not changed for Tropical Storm Olivia despite an increase in pressure, sustained winds at 70 mph.

Movement is West at 9 mph.

Storm landfall is predicted around sunrise Wednesday likely somewhere in Maui County.

Tropical Storm Warning:  Big Island, Maui County, O'ahu

Tropical Storm Watch:  Kaua'i

Flood Watch:  All Islands

High Surf Warning:  East shores Big Island and Maui County

High Surf Advisory:  East shores O'ahu. 

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8 p.m.

There are no significant changes to Tropical Storm Olivia, Island News will have a new forecast track at 11 p.m.

Winds are at 70 mph and motion is West Northwest at 9 m.p.h.

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2 p.m.

Olivia has downgraded to a tropical storm, but continues to move toward the Hawaiian Islands at 9 mph.

The storm is 415 miles east northeast of Hilo, and 565 miles east of Honolulu, with maximum sustained winds at 70 miles per hour.

A Tropical Storm Watch is still in effect for Maui and Hawaii Counties. 

Oahu is under a Tropical Storm Warning.

As Olivia moves closer to Hawaii, gradual weakening is expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center.

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11 a.m.

Hurricane Olivia weakens slightly, but remains a Category 1 storm headed toward Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Warnings still in effect for Maui and Hawaii Counties, with O'ahu under a Tropical Storm Watch.

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8 a.m.

Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for Maui and Hawaii Counties.

Olivia continues to move toward Hawaii, at 85 mph.

The storm is 480 miles east northeast of Hilo, and 635 miles east of Honolulu.

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September 10, 2018

5 a.m.

Hurricane Olivia is still moving toward Hawaii, with Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for Maui and Hawaii Counties. 

The storm is about 480 miles east northeast of Hilo, and about 635 miles east of Honolulu, with maximum sustained winds at 85 mph.

Oahu County is currently under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area starting late Tuesday. 

Hurricane Olivia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible, especially over windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Large swells due to Olivia will build along east facing shorelines, that may become damaging across parts of the state.

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September 9, 2018 11:53 a.m.

Olivia is moving toward the West near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so with some slowing in forward speed. A West-Southwest motion is expected to begin Monday night or Tuesday.

On the forecast track, Olivia will be approaching the main Hawaiian islands later Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, with gradual weakening expected afterward.

The latest picture of Hurricane Olivia's forecast track is within this article.

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Sunday, Sept. 9

5 a.m.

At 5 a.m. the center of Hurricane Olivia was located about 731 miles ESE of Hilo, Hawaii  

Sustained winds are near 75 mph, with gusts up to 90 mph.

Olivia is moving toward the west near 16 mph.  Olivia is expected to continue moving westward, but at a slightly slower forward speed through early Monday.  

A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected starting late Monday. This track could bring the outer circulation of Olivia close to the Hawaiian Islands starting Tuesday night. 

Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Olivia is expected to remain a hurricane through Monday night. Some gradual weakening is possible on Tuesday, but

Olivia will likely remain a threat to the Hawaiian Islands early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 

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Saturday, Sept. 8

8 a.m.

The center of Hurricane Olivia is located about 1110 miles east of Hilo.  

Sustained winds are at 85 mph, with gusts up to 110 mph.  Olivia is moving toward the west near 15 mph.

This general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days, with a west-southwestward turn anticipated by Tuesday.  On the forecast track, Olivia will move into the Central Pacific basin in the next 12 hours, and could be approaching the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday.

Olivia is forecast to stay a hurricane for the next couple of days while the system is experiencing light shear, balanced by very dry air and marginal but warming sea temperatures.  While the forecast is flat-lined through 48 hours, don't be surprised if the system's intensity fluctuates upward at times, as many eastern Pacific cyclones have done so this season within a marginal environment.  

After the weekend, most of the guidance indicates that westerly shear should increase, which will likely cause weakening while Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

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11 p.m.

Norman continues to weaken as it moves away from the state.

Olivia has weakened to a Category One hurricane with winds of 90 mph. Motion is to the WNW at 15 mph. It's located 1200 miles east of Hilo. Olivia is forecast to continue to weaken Saturday then maintain Category One strength Sunday into Monday.  On Tuesday wind shear should weaken Olivia into a tropical storm. 

On it's current track it COULD make landfall somewhere between Oahu and the Big Island overnight Tuesday night - Wednesday.  The models are split between a landfall around Oahu or a possible path near or south of the Big Island. The official track is right down the middle of those possibilities but favoring the Big Island. 

Hurricane hunters sample the environment around the storm Saturday and then fly through the storm Sunday.  This should give the computer models better data and result in a more refined forecast this weekend.

5 p.m. 

Latest track on Hurricane Olivia shows it's currently a Category 2 hurricane, moving west northwest at 15 mph and is expected to pass near or possibly thru the islands late Tuesday or Wednesday. 

2 p.m. 

The National Hurricane Center reports Hurricane Olivia continues to slowly weaken and is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin on Saturday.

Olivia is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph and this general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. 

A gradual turn toward the West is expected on Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.

A slow weakening trend is expected during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

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9/7 8 a.m. 

Hurricane Norman continues to life north and be torn apart by 40-45 kt vertical wind shear.  Still a category 1 with maximum sustained winds 75 MPH. Norman is 290 miles NE of Hilo, Hawaii. Light winds, hot and humid conditions this weekend associated with Norman

Olivia is weakening but remains a major hurricane. Category 3 with maximum sustained winds at 115 MPH. About 1465 miles E of Hilo, Hawaii. The track brings the storm near or into the islands Tuesday night into Wednesday. It is expected to downgrade into a tropical storm with wind speeds 39-73 MPH. 

High surf warning in effect for East shores of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui. High surf warning for East and North shores of Hawaii island. 

The County of Hawaii:

"Due to the forecast weather conditions, the following closures and recommendations are now in effect:

  • Boat owners should take measures to secure their vessels until the danger passes. (Hilo Area)
  • Oceanfront residents are urged to be on alert for high and dangerous surf conditions through Friday."

9/6, 11 p.m. 

Hurricane Norman is weakening and lifting north of the state. High surf will continue to affect east shores Friday.

Hurricane Olivia will continue west guided by a strong ridge of high pressure. It looks more and more likely the storm will approach Hawaiian waters and possibly could impact the islands.  The track brings the storm near or into the islands late Tuesday or Wednesday. Computer models are pretty consistent with this expected track.

The intensity forecast is much tougher with a lot of contradictory factors. The storm is a rarer annular hurricane.  These hurricanes tend to weaken slower than normal storms.

On the other hand, Olivia will be moving over slightly cooler waters with drier air out ahead of it, that should induce weakening. When the hurricane approaches the islands, it'll be battling wind shear as well. Right now the official forecast weakens Olivia to a tropical storm late Tuesday.

The next update from the National Hurricane Center is at 5 a.m. Friday.