HONOLULU -- KITV4 and the Sunday Honolulu Star-Bulletin will give viewers and readers the results of the first independent, scientific poll of Hawaii voters on the two key elections of this new campaign season.

How do former Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann stand with Hawaii voters in a possible showdown for governor?

Results show Abercrombie with a slight lead.

"This launch that we have with your very favorable poll is something that's really going to take off its very encouraging and exciting," Abercrombie said upon hearing the results of the poll.

Poll Finds Statistical Tie Between Abercrombie, Hannemann

The senior Hawaii U.S. representative may sound like he is way ahead; however, the poll of more than 800 likely voters in the Democratic primary for governor shows him just three points ahead with 37 percent verses 34 percent for Hannemann, with 29 percent undecided. Considering the margin of error of 4 percent, it is statistically a tie.

Political science professor Neal Milner said that for Abercrombie a tie is great news.

"If there was a conventional wisdom, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Hannemann had a big lead and because he had more money that Abercrombie was clearly going to be the underdog," Milner said.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Abercrombie does better with younger voters and women, possibly because he is perceived as more liberal than Hannemann.

"I don't know that Abercrombie is so far to the left that I don't agree with him, but I think Mufi is doing some pretty good stuff," voter Amanda Hill said.

The poll also showed that voters are familiar with both men well, and like them. More than 40 percent see them in a favorable light, and their negatives are both below 20 percent.

Many voters appear to feel like Camille Chun Hoon does about them.

"Equally, capable to lead," she said.

If Hannemann joins the race, it will be a rematch of 24 years ago when the men fought so hard for a seat in Congress it went to a Republican. But the polls suggest voters have forgotten or forgiven and are ready to give both an equal shot.

"For most voters that really isn't an issue anymore even if they remember at all," Milner said.

Hannemann would not comment for the story, but the chairperson of his exploratory committee said they are happy with the results.

Same-Sex Marriage Could Make Difference For Aiona

The poll also indicates Republican Lt. Governor Duke Aiona trails both of his potential rivals, and same-sex marriage is an issue that could make a difference. Gov. Linda Lingle said she wants the civil unions issue to go away, but Aiona is taking a position that could make it a big part of the race to replace her.

Thousands of people gathered at a traditional marriage rally over the weekend, and their votes could make a difference for Aiona.

"I am a candidate for family. I am a candidate for marriage," Aiona said.

According to the poll, if the general election were held today, Abercrombie holds a nine-point lead over Aiona, and six-point lead over Hannemann. About a quarter of likely voters are undecided.

Experts said Aiona needs a way to break out of a traditional Republican problem in Hawaii.

"(Marriage) may be an issue that can mobilize people outside of the base and bring people who normally would not vote for Republicans into voting for Aiona," Milner said. "If you can't find an issue as a Republican to mobilize people outside your normal base, you're going to lose."

Aiona said the priority issues are the economy, jobs and education, and his boss, the governor, said civil unions should not even be considered by the Legislature this year. Aiona is supporting another constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage that would keep the issue alive all the way to the November ballot.

"It would help if the majority of people who came out to vote were in favor of this issue. I guess it would help me, but I am not looking at this as a catalyst for jumpstarting my campaign," Aiona said.

Abercrombie supports civil unions, but Hannemann made a surprise appearance at Sunday's rally by not making a statement about civil unions but he was very clear on one thing.

"I believe in the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman," Hannemann said.

Aiona does poll a little better than Hannemann and Abercrombie when voters were asked how favorably they view the candidates. Once again, he credited family values.

"They can relate to me because I am like them. I have a family, I have children, I am born and raised here in Hawaii," Aiona said.

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc.