Civil Beat has released new numbers in the race for U.S. Senate seat currently held by Sen. Brian Schatz.
"The first three polls were essentially tied," said Chad Blair, Civil Beat senior political reporter.
But in a Civilbeat.com poll, it's advantage Schatz.
Schatz has opened up a lead of 5 percent over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa.
"Mind you, that's only 5 points and a lot can change," Blair said.
Of the 840 registered Hawaii voters polled in mid-May, 520 said they will vote Democrat. Of those, 44 percent said they'll support Schatz.
Thirty-nine percent choose Hanabusa.
Sixteen percent say they are undecided.
"I think Schatz is basically coming up with very standard, progressive Democratic positions on issues. Social security is a good example of that," said political analyst Neal Milner.
By February, Schatz had a significant fundraising lead over Hanabusa.
That's when he released his first campaign spot.
He now has three TV spots plus one more from supporters which highlights gun safety, equal opportunity and family.
Last week, Hanabusa released her first on-air campaign spot which was shot in her hometown of Waianae, focusing on Hawaiian values and hard work.
"She's trying to appeal to the progressive end of the party but at the same time make the argument that puts her as part of the tradition of the senior senator and that's hard to do," Milner said.
A deeper look at Civil Beat's poll shows Schatz doing well with white voters, 59 percent of whom back him.
Hanabusa did best with Hawaiians. She has 55 percent of that vote. She also leads among Japanese voters, but 23 percent say they're still not sure.
"Historically, Japanese-Americans have been reluctant to share their voting views with somebody and so it's quite possible those numbers might help out Hanabusa who, of course, is Japanese-American," Blair said.
The polls have a margin of error 4.3 percent.
On Wednesday, Civilbeat.com will take a look at the race for the First Congressional District. It's a packed race with eight candidates vying for that seat, soon to be vacated by Hanabusa.