Saturday's three-way Honolulu mayor's race between Ben Cayetano, Kirk Caldwell and Peter Carlisle could come down to which candidate has created the most excitement among their respective supporters.

Cayetano, the former two-term democratic governor-turned-anti-rail candidate, points to a sign-waving event Thursday that drew about 1,000 supporters without the help of any public worker union.

"We got a lot of support from people, regular people, and not so much (from) organizations," Cayetano told KITV4. "We'll have to be a little lucky to win tomorrow. You know, we need a big turnout."

Cayetano is the clear frontrunner in the race, according to polls leading up to Saturday's primary election. On Wednesday, Civilbeat, KITV4's news partner, pegged Cayetano's lead at 51 percent. Cayetano needs 50 percent, plus one vote, to be declared the outright winner, avoiding a runoff in November.

However, former city managing director and acting mayor Kirk Caldwell said Friday he feels a surge of momentum, both in his heart and his campaign coffer. Caldwell raised the most cash in the final weeks of the campaign, bringing in roughly $47,000 since July 27.

"I think people vote in making political contributions, in terms of whether they think you're going to win," he said.

The Civilbeat poll had Caldwell receiving 24 percent of the vote.

"I don't know where I'm going to finish," said Caldwell. "All I know is that there is very, very strong momentum. I can feel it right here," he added, pointing to his chest.

Mayor Peter Carlisle, meanwhile, agrees with most political observers that Cayetano will likely finish ahead of the pack. He said the race for second place could come down to a few hundred votes.

Although Carlisle was already well-known after serving 14 years as city prosecutor, he said he's surprised by how much his name recognition has grown.