AXNT20 KNHC 081737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 86.0W AT 08/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ENTIRE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 81W-88W... AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BUT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE ON THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 9N50W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 25W-34W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 37W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 34W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 36N83W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N94W. HURRICANE IDA IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. GALE FORCE WINDS OR HIGHER ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W. 20-25 KT E SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST HAS ONLY 10-15 KT E WINDS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO IDA. MORE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W AND OVER N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 23N AND W OF 90W. EXPECT...HURRICANE IDA TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... IDA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W HONDURAS...AND E GUATEMALA DUE TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AT 13N89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N79W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N67W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N45W TO 28N50W 23N60W DISSIPATING TO 22N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 24N40W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 12N20W. $$ FORMOSA
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